Modelling COVID-19 Vaccination in the UK: Impact of the Autumn 2022 and Spring 2023 Booster Campaigns
Published in Infectious Diseases and Therapy, 2024
We adapted an age-, immunity- and risk-stratified SEIR model to assess the impact of booster vaccination on COVID-19-induced hospitalisations, mortality, bed days, and productivity.
Abstract: This study aimed to estimate the effects of the 2022/23 COVID-19 booster program and assessing alternative vaccination strategies on morbidity and mortality due to COVID-19 in the UK. An age-, immunity- and risk-stratified SEIR model was used to assess the impact of vaccination on COVID-19-induced hospitalisations, mortality, bed days, and productivity. The model estimated that the autumn 2022/spring 2023 booster campaign resulted in a reduction of 18,921 hospitalizations and 1,463 deaths, compared with a no booster scenario. Utilization of hospital bed days due to COVID-19 decreased after the autumn 2022/spring 2023 booster campaign. Expanding the booster eligibility criteria and improving uptake improved all outcomes, including averting twice as many ICU admissions, preventing more than 20% additional deaths, and a sevenfold reduction in long COVID, compared with the autumn 2022/spring 2023 booster campaign. The number of productive days lost was reduced by fivefold indicating that vaccinating a wider population has a beneficial impact on the morbidities associated with COVID-19.
Lay abstract: In this study, we looked at how giving COVID-19 booster shots in the UK during autumn 2022 and spring 2023 affected people’s health and the healthcare system. We used a detailed computational model that considered different ages, levels of immunity, and health risks. The booster shots given in autumn 2022 and spring 2023 prevented 18,921 hospital stays and 1,463 deaths compared to if no boosters were given.
Recommended citation: Mendes, D., Machira Krishnan, S., O’Brien, E. et al. Modelling COVID-19 Vaccination in the UK: Impact of the Autumn 2022 and Spring 2023 Booster Campaigns. Infect Dis Ther (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40121-024-00965-8