Blog Post number 2
Published:
Sitemap
A list of all the posts and pages found on the site. For you robots out there is an XML version available for digesting as well.
Pages
Blog Post number 3
Published:
Blog Post number 4
Published:
Future Blog Post
Published:
Page Not Found
Page not found. Your pixels are in another canvas.
About me
About me
Page not in menu
This is a page not in th emain menu
Talk 1 on Relevant Topic in Your Field
Published:
Tutorial 1 on Relevant Topic in Your Field
Published:
Posts
Test (Blog Posts Coming Soon!)
Published:
This is a test blog post. Blog posts are TBC
outreach
What can zombies teach us about public health? - Oxford
Published:
Outreach as part of the Oxford Science & Ideas Festival
What can zombies teach us about public health? - Bassaleg
Published:
Outreach delivered to Bassaleg secondary school
podcast
Shaping the future: Everything’s a system
Published:
Health is a system - why don’t we consider this in models?
portfolio
Portfolio item number 1
Short description of portfolio item number 1
Portfolio item number 2
Short description of portfolio item number 2
publications
Individual-based model of juvenile eel movement parametrized with computational fluid dynamics-derived flow fields informs improved fish pass design
Published in Royal Society open science, 2020
We assessed the passage efficiency of eel passes using de novo cellular automata and individual-based. We quantified the relationship between passage efficiency (proportion of passage attempts that are successful), flow rate, and passage inclination; highlighting the need for shallower inclinations to facilitate the passage of younger eels.
Download here
Development and application of individual-based models for predicting upstream passage of European fish [Thesis]
Published in WhiteRose eTheses Online, 2021
My PhD thesis was on the development of cellular automata and agent-based models to assess fish passage using computational fluid dynamics.
Download here
Modelling COVID-19 Vaccination in the UK: Impact of the Autumn 2022 and Spring 2023 Booster Campaigns
Published in Infectious Diseases and Therapy, 2024
We adapted an age-, immunity- and risk-stratified SEIR model to assess the impact of booster vaccination on COVID-19-induced hospitalisations, mortality, bed days, and productivity.
Download here
Antimicrobial Resistance Trends, Predictors, and Burden in England: A retrospective study using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink from 2015-2021
Published in International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents, 2025
We described the burden of antimicrobial resistance to healthcare systems based on a retrospective cohort study using UK healthcare data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink.
Download here
NHS 10 year plan: Can using AI offer a solution to the NHS’ problems?
Published in BMJ, 2025
This is an opinion piece for the BMJ relating to the use of AI within the UK government’s 10 year plan for the NHS.
Download here
The evolving burden of obesity in the US: a novel population-level system dynamics approach
Published in Journal of Medical Economics, 2025
We predict how the age and BMI of the US population will evolve over time and use this prediction to estimate the associated burden of obesity over time.
Download here
Development of Cardiovascular Risk Equations in People with Overweight or Obesity and Established Cardiovascular Disease Without Diabetes Based on the SELECT Trial
Published in PharmacoEconomics, 2026
We derived treatment-specific, trial-based risk eqautions to predict the risk of secondary cardiovascular events in people with overweight or obesity and established cardiovascular disease but without diabetes.
Download here
talks
Modelling COVID-19 vaccination in the UK - Impact of the Autumn 2022 and Spring 2023 booster campaigns
Published:
This work aligns with our paper on assessing the impact of Covid boosters, which can be found here.
The value of guideline-recommended management of type 2 diabetes: a novel population-level system dynamics approach
Published:
This study estimated the system-level impact of adopting a holistic approach to T2D management in-line with contemporary international guidelines.
Excess body weight contributes to a premature health economic aging of 8.3 years, equivalent to an additional annual health expenditure of $306B: Results of a US population study
Published:
This study evaluates the population-level effects of excess body weight on US healthcare expenditure via quantification of health economic aging across the population.
Assessing the value of managing diabetic kidney disease from a US healthcare perspective
Published:
This study estimates the economic value of attenuating the rate of decline of eGFR to limit DKD progression.
Targeted Interventions in Obesity: A Novel Population-level System Dynamics Approach
Published:
This study estimates the population-level burden of adult obesity in the US. We quantified the value of early vs. late intervention in obesity from a total system perspective, exploring effects on a variety of outcomes.
The prevalence of multi-comorbid patients in the US: highlighting the need for multi-indication value assessments
Published:
This study estimates the population-level prevalence of seven interrelated diseases within the US, describes the substantial overlap between these diseases, and quantifies the prevalence of multi-comorbid patients.
Use of metamodels in health economics to bypass complexity and democratize modelling
Published:
This study outlines the potential usage of neural-network-based metamodels within health economics.
System dynamics facilitate complex decision-making for healthcare delivery: A case study of chronic kidney disease in Wales
Published:
We predicted the future prevalence of CKD in Wales, with a focus on ESKD and its treatment modalities.
The effect of an ageing population on secondary care resource usage in the UK
Published:
We demonstrate how the UK has aged and how it will continue to age, and predict how this ageing will affect demand for healthcare.
The Burden of Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease (MASLD) and Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatohepatitis (MASH) in the US: A Total System Value Evidence Framework
Published:
We present a qualitative evidence framework used to visualise the complex interconnectivity between MASLD/MASH, its outcomes, and the effects on the broader system.
Metamodels & SHAP analysis: Unearthing data interactions
Published:
This study demonstrates how SHAP analysis can be applied to a neural network-based metamodel to perform sensitivity analyses and elucidate interactivity between inputs.
The Changing Prevalence of Multicomorbid Patients in the US
Published:
This study estimates the prevalence of six interrelated diseases in the US, describing the significant overlap in the patient population, and demonstrating how the prevalence has changed across two decades.
The Longevity Conundrum: Population Ageing in the UK
Published:
This study estimates the future age structure of the UK under increasing life expectancy and decreasing fertility, and relates that to changes in national revenue, spending, and healthcare usage.
Clinical and humanistic burden of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis in the United States: a system dynamics model
Published:
This study estimates the clinical and patient burden of MASLD/MASH in the US, based on a dynamic prevalence model calibrated to NHANES-derived prevalence data for 2006-2020. Assuming the status quo continues, prevalence is predicted to rise from 104m in 2025 to 133m by 2060, with an associated 131% increase in the demand for liver transplantation and a 36% increase in deaths relating to the disease.
Economic and healthcare resource burden of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis: a United States system dynamics model
Published:
This study estimates the clinical and patient burden of MASLD/MASH in the US, based on a dynamic prevalence model calibrated to NHANES-derived prevalence data for 2006-2020. Assuming the status quo continues, prevalence is predicted to rise from 104m in 2025 to 133m by 2060, with an associated 37% increase in direct costs and 39% increase in bed days.
Estimating the value of genomic newborn screening in England: A pragmatic threshold analysis
Published:
This study estimates the value of newborn genetic screening based on a pragmatic threshold analysis, which computes the average net monetary benefit/QALYs required for screening to be cost-effective within the English setting. An average QALY gain of 6.9 was found to be required for cost-effectiveness, representing a study-level average using an incidence of 341 per 100,000 and a screening cost of £1,200 per newborn. This analysis provides early insight into the health gains needed for gNBS to be cost-effective in England
teaching
Teaching experience 1
Undergraduate course, University 1, Department, 2014
This is a description of a teaching experience. You can use markdown like any other post.
Teaching experience 2
Workshop, University 1, Department, 2015
This is a description of a teaching experience. You can use markdown like any other post.