Dr Thomas Padgett — Health Modeller

Hello! My name is Thomas and I’m a principal operational researcher at HEOR. I’m an aerospace engineer by training, with a PhD in agent-based modelling and computational fluid dynamics. I made the jump from engineering to pharmaceutical data science and health economics in May 2021.

I have always been curious as to how things work, why things are the way they are, and how things can be improved. This translated into a passion for building models. I’ve built models of cities, aeroplanes, fish, birds, and rivers. I’ve now turned my focus to health, building models to understand disease prevalence, natural history, cost-effectiveness, healthcare resource usage, and more.

I’m lucky enough to be employed at a company that supports my desire to work across many different areas, enabling me to understand the full drug development pipeline and how my modelling and mathematical skills can be of most use.

My research interests

• System dynamics models for understanding system-level disease burden.
• The use of artificial intelligence in health economics and healthcare.
• Modelling and optimisation of healthcare capacity and delivery.
• The impact of population ageing and approaches to mitigate this impact.

These themes run through much of my recent publications and conference talks.

I also work on personal projects over on my personal GitHub, and I aim to write up each one as a blog post — though time is rarely on my side.

My background

I received my undergraduate degree (MEng) in aerospace and aeronautical engineering from the University of Leeds School of Mechanical Engineering. During this time I focussed on simulation of structures, fluids, and the interaction between the two. I wrote my dissertation on structural topology optimisation for satellite components in conjunction with Airbus Group Innovations. I then continued to study at postgraduate level within the Centre for Doctoral training in Fluid Dynamics at the University of Leeds. I originally planned to carry out my PhD in coupled fluid-structure simulations for aircraft control surfaces. However, I ended up being entirely captivated by another topic: fish.

My Phd considered fish behaviour and their responses to fluid stimuli, culminating in several individual- and agent-based models of fish behaviour. My PhD thesis is available to download from the White Rose eTheses Repository.

After a short stint in academia, I joined HEOR in May 2021 as a senior data scientist. I was promoted to principal data scientist in September 2022, and in April 2024 I joined the newly formed operational research group.