Dr Thomas Padgett — Health Modeller

Hello! My name is Thomas and I’m a principal operational researcher at HEOR. I’m an aerospace engineer by training, with a PhD in agent-based modelling and computational fluid dynamics. I made the jump from engineering to pharmaceutical data science and health economics in May 2021.

I have always been curious as to how things work, why things are the way they are, and how things can be improved. This translated into a passion for building models. I’ve built models of cities, aeroplanes, fish, birds, and rivers. I’ve now turned my focus to health, building models to understand disease prevalence, natural history, cost-effectiveness, healthcare resource usage, and more.

I’m also the HEOR representative on the industrial advisory board for the computer science programme at Swansea University.

My research interests

• Simulation modelling
• Population-level and system-level disease burden.
• Ageing populations and challenges with longevity.
• The use of AI in health economics and healthcare.
• Modelling and optimisation of healthcare capacity and delivery.

These themes run through much of my recent publications and conference talks.

I also work on personal projects over on my personal GitHub, and I aim to write up each one as a blog post — though time is rarely on my side.

My background

I received my undergraduate degree (MEng) in aerospace and aeronautical engineering from the University of Leeds School of Mechanical Engineering. During this time I focussed on simulation of structures, fluids, and the interaction between the two. I wrote my dissertation on structural topology optimisation for satellite components in conjunction with Airbus Group Innovations. I then continued to study at postgraduate level within the Centre for Doctoral training in Fluid Dynamics at the University of Leeds. I originally planned to carry out my PhD in coupled fluid-structure simulations for aircraft control surfaces. However, I ended up being entirely captivated by another topic: fish.

My Phd considered fish behaviour and their responses to fluid stimuli, culminating in several individual- and agent-based models of fish behaviour. My PhD thesis is available to download from the White Rose eTheses Repository.

After a short stint in academia, I joined HEOR in May 2021 as a senior data scientist. I was promoted to principal data scientist in September 2022, and in April 2024 I joined the newly formed operational research group as a principal.