The evolving burden of obesity in the US: a novel population-level system dynamics approach
Published in Journal of Medical Economics, 2025
We predict how the age and BMI of the US population will evolve over time and use this prediction to estimate the associated burden of obesity over time.
The prevalence of obesity in US adults exceeds 40%, will trends suggesting0 that this epidemic will continue to worsen. We developed a system dynamics model of the US population to forecast US obesity from 2023–2060. We used this predicted prevalence to assess the whole-system burden of obesity from multiple perspectives and explore the impacts of targeted interventions. By 2060, we project US adult obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2) prevalence will increase to 50.5%. Direct obesity-attributable healthcare costs were estimated at $20.4tn cumulatively (2023–2060). We demonstrate that preventing obesity is preferable to managing prevalent obesity (the current paradigm), with superior holistic benefits, especially if focused on younger people.
Recommended citation: McEwan, P., Faurby, M., Lübker, C., Padgett, T., & Toliver, J. C. (2025). The evolving burden of obesity in the US: a novel population-level system dynamics approach. Journal of Medical Economics, (just-accepted), 1-17.