Targeted Interventions in Obesity: A Novel Population-level System Dynamics Approach
Date:
This study estimates the population-level burden of adult obesity in the US. We quantified the value of early vs. late intervention in obesity from a total system perspective, exploring effects on a variety of outcomes.
Abstract: Obesity is a growing problem, with prevalence in the US of >40% and expected to rise. Obesity and related comorbidities are associated with considerable healthcare expenditure; however, traditional health economic evaluations often fail to capture the full burden of obesity on a national system. We developed an age- and BMI-stratified population-level system dynamics model to predict the prevalence and burden of adult obesity in the US from 2020-2060. With no intervention, the prevalence of adult obesity is predicted to increase from 107m (43%) in 2023 to 138m (51%) in 2060, resulting in a 35% increase in comorbidities-related hospitalisations and bed days and a $220bn increase in healthcare costs to more than $600bn and $4.4tn in lost quality of life. We demonstrated that early intervention in obesity has the greatest potential to drive reductions in prevalence, reducing healthcare resource use and direct and indirect costs.
Lay abstract: The burden of obesity in the US is large and expected to go grow. Obesity results in increased costs from multiple perspectives including: healthcare, environmental, lost income, quality of life, and societal costs. We build a model to demonstrate the current burden of obesity and used this model to predict the future burden should current trends continue. We demonstrated that applying treatment to reduce the progression of obesity in people with lower BMIs had greater impact than applying the same treatment to those with larger BMIs.
This work was paid for by Novo Nordisk A/S.
Recommended citation: Toliver, J., Faurby, M., Padgett, T., McEwan, P. (2024) Targeted Interventions in Obesity: A Novel Population-level System Dynamics Approach. Obesity Week, 4 November 2024; Poster-118.