The effect of an ageing population on secondary care resource usage in the UK
Date:
We demonstrate how the UK has aged and how it will continue to age, and predict how this ageing will affect demand for healthcare.
Abstract: The NHS is under increasing pressures due to an ageing and increasingly comorbid population and is struggling to meet targets for patient waiting times and quality of treatment. The UK population is predicted to continue to age as life expectancy increases, intensifying the problem.
A system dynamics model was developed to estimate the age- and sex-stratified UK population to 2060. People enter and leave the model through births, migration and death. Secondary care usage was predicted using NHS data.
The UK population is predicted to grow from 69.3M in 2025 (mean age of 40.5) to 73.7M by 2060 (mean age of 46.1). Consequently, from 2025 to 2060, annual A&E admissions are predicted to rise from 18.9M to 21.1M (11.6% increase), while annual inpatient bed days are anticipated to rise from 46.6M to 67.3M (44.4% increase). Moreover, annual outpatient procedures are predicted to rise from 13.7M to 16.6M (20.9% increase).
Population ageing will substantially increase demand for healthcare usage within an already constrained system. Delivery of healthcare must be prioritised to those with the highest need, which often means focusing on older patients. As such, younger, economically active patients are deprioritised, leading to reduced productivity. This fuels a feedback loop whereby resource to deliver healthcare is reduced, leading to further reductions in productivity.
Lay abstract: The population of the UK is becoming older and sicker. This will increase demand for an already struggling healthcare system. This study predicts how the UK will continue to age and how this will impact on healthcare demand.
Recommended citation: Vodyanov, A., Padgett, T., McEwan, P. (2025) The effect of an ageing population on secondary care resource usage in the UK. EURO2025, 25 June 2025; Presentation.